National Weather Service Blows it on NYC area Warnings re: Sandy

 In  direct contrast with the urgings of The Weather Channel, the announcements of the United States Coast Guard, and its own predictions, the National Hurricane Center of the National Weather Service  has stubbornly refused to issue Hurricane watches or warnings, or even tropical storm watches and warnings, for the US Northeast ahead of Hurricane Sandy. The decisions is being criticized by most other weather professionals and first responders.

A flabbergasted Jim Cantore, reporting from Battery Park in Manhattan for The Weather Channel, questioned the wisdom of the decision and urged NOAA to change its mind, while TWC Tropical Weather expert Dr. Greg Postel referred to the NWS decision as "not good judgement" on his national broadcast.

Meanwhile, the United States Coast Guard issued “Port Condition X-Ray” warnings for New York Harbor, the last stage before boats are required to tie up securely or leave. Port Condition X-Ray, by Coast Guard standards, is issued 48 hours prior to expected landfall of a hurricane.

As renowned weather blogger Mike Smith wrote,

“…Meteorologists, as a group, get hung up on technicalities. Even though the storm, until dissipation, will always be the swirl of clouds known as Sandy at its center, over time the storm may transition from having a warm core (classic hurricane) to a cold core (hybrid) two miles above the ground. Other than meteorologists, who cares?

Everyone knows a hurricane is really bad -- and we believe this storm will be really bad. So, a hurricane warning would have told everyone what they needed to know.

Non-mariners don't know the definition of "gale force winds" (FYI: 39 to 54 mph). Disregarding that using hurricane warnings would be clearer, the NWS is going to get hung up on "gale, storm, high wind, inland high wind" and their alphabet soup of warning types with Sandy. Plus, with each individual NWS office having warning responsibility, rather than the National Hurricane Center, inconsistencies may develop. This occasionally occurs with Nor'easters and similar storms.

I believe this is an unfortunate decision by the NWS.”

 

The National Weather Service itself acknowledges on their site that the storm is a hurricane, and may even intensify prior to landfall:

SANDY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

  

In spite of this, and in spite of expected storm surges of eight feet along Long Island's south shore, the NWS has refused to issue the normal warnings. Stung by criticism from all other weather sources, the NWS issued a statement just a few minutes ago explaining their actions:

"FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY.  IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES."

("Highly Disruptive?"  For who?  For their web designer who would have to change the page?)

Yet, as of 3:17 pm today, no such warnings had been issued for anywhere in NY or NJ!

In the meantime, officials in New Jersey and New York are attempting to encourage evacuations of vulnerable coastal areas, without the added ‘encouragement’ of the NWS.  Fire Island (NY) ferries have been ordered shut down Sunday mid-day, and the barrier beaches of New Jersey are now under mandatory evacuation orders. This afternoon’s high tide in New York was already one foot higher than predicted, and current predictions are for five-and-a-half-foot surge on top of a five foot astronomical high tide. Computer models at RMS, a company used by the Insurance industry to predict losses from weather events, have suggested that Sandy will be more destructive than Irene, and could cause more property damage (in dollars) than Katrina.

Still, the National Weather Service steadfastly refuses to issue warnings of any type for the NY area.

Year in Review: The Top 10 News Stories of 2011

From this Blogger's perspective, here are the top 10 news stories of 2011. Each was chosen based on their potential on-going long-term effects on humanity. In no particular order, they are:

1) The Arab Spring: Erupting in Tunisia and spreading across the Arab world, the entire year was characterized by protests and political changes in Northern Africa and the Middle East. Regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, as well as on-going protests in a dozen nations (currently (most serious in Syria and Yemen) represent serious winds of change throughout the geo-political sphere. A timeline of protests throughout the Arab world can be found at The Guardian

2) Weather Extremes and Global Warming: Once a matter of debate, the vast majority of the world’s climatologists agree that global warming is happening at an even faster rate than expected, with significant changes in the ocean temperatures and subsequent weather patterns. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there were an all-time record of twelve weather disasters costing more than $1 billion each in 2011 (for a total of 45 billion dollars in damage). The previous record was nine such disasters in 2008. Weather events included a blizzard across much of North America on February 2, record wilfires in the US west, a tornado outbreak that levelled Joplin, Missouri, Hurricane Irene (which uncharacteristically inundated and devastated inland communities in Vermont and Upstate New York), and a foot-and-half snowfall at Halloween in the northeast US. Elsewhere, record high temperatures were recorded in Iraq and Kuwait, an all-time record low volume of Arctic sea was recorded, record floods inundated Australia and Asia, and the worst droughts in three decades affected Africa.

3) Osama bin Laden Killed: A decade after he masterminded the 9/11 attacks on New York City’s World Trade Center, Osama bin Laden was killed in a surgical strike on his hideout in Pakistan. This represented the most visible and significant victory in the global fight against terrorism and the al Qaeda organization.

4) New York State Enacts Marriage Equality: Four days after its scheduled adjournment for the season, the New York State Senate gave its approval to Marriage Equality by a larger-than expected margin of 33-29 when four Republicans broke rank and joined the majority of Democrats, making New York the seventh and largest jurisdiction in the US to permit same-sex marriage. Full story at Tully's Page

5) Occupy Wall Street and Police Brutality: Beginning on September 17 in New York City, the “Occupy Wall Street” movement in many ways inaugurated an American version of the Arab Spring. Spreading to other cities across the nation, thousands of Americans from all walks of life took to the streets to protest persistent unemployment, indebtedness, foreclosures and economic injustice in raw juxtaposition to the trillions of bailouts received by Wall Street financial houses and executives. The movement elicited a brutal response by police forces, and the use of pepper spray against peaceful protesters, young women, and veterans became a national outrage. The movement propelled Time magazine to name “The Protester” as it’s Person of the Year.

6) Federal Reserve Bailouts Revealed: For almost 100 years, the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the nations Central Bank, operated without an audit or significant political oversight. In the aftermath of the bank bailouts commencing in 2008, Congress began looking into the Fed’s activities using taxpayer dollars. In all, it was revealed that over 16 trillion in secret unpaid loans were made to both American and foreign banks. Sen. Bernie Sanders

7) Earthquake, Tsunami, and Nuclear Meltdown in Japan: On March 11, an 8.9 Magnitude earthquake rocked Japan, the worst earthquake in modern history. Over 16,000 people died from the quake and the tsunami that followed. When the Fukushima Daiichi power plant site in Fukushima was inundated by a 49-foot high tsunami wave, the nuclear reactors could not be cooled, began to overheat, and meltdowns began at three of the reactors. What followed was a release of radioactive cesium, evacuation of the surrounding area, and subsequent government and industry cover-ups of the extent of radiation. Fukushima Radiation

8) John Wheeler Murdered: On New Year’s Eve, after the death of 100,000 fish and 5,000 blackbirds in Arkansas, John P. Wheeler, a decades-long government expert in toxic chemicals, was found murdered in a dump as he was en route to Washington DC. The kills and murder came in the wake of the US Government’s Pine Bluffs Arsenal "disposal” of mustard and nerve gas in the area, as well as active “fracking” by energy companies. The incidences awakened a national concern for the environmental effects of these activities, and was the single most visited and cited webpage on this site: John Wheeler

9) Milton Hershey Rejects HIV Positive Student: In an almost incomprehensible burst of ignorance, prejudice, and chutzpah, the highly-vaunted Milton Hershey School (a private, tuition-free boarding school), issued a statement coinciding with World AIDs Day explaining their refusal to admit a student due to his HIV positive status, in direct violation of the federal Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). Outrage was swift, and brought additional publicity to continuing ignorance about HIV transmission. Milton Hershey

10) European Debt Crisis: Beginning in Greece, the ability of some Eurozone member nations to repay their government debts created continental – and global – concern. Ireland, once seen as the “Celtic Tiger” for its explosive, high-tech-driven growth found itself enacting austerity measures and slashing government spending; Italy, Portugal, and Spain found themselves in a similar condition. The downgrading of these nations bonds began a record weakening of the Euro against the US Dollar that continued throughout the year. A weakened Euro makes it more difficult for the Eurozone members to purchase American goods, endangering the US recovery.