Did Obama Campaign Forfeit New Hampshire Convention Delegates?

While the Media focus on the New Hampshire Primary has been on the actual number of votes each candidates will receive, the purpose of a primary is actually to permit the parties to choose Delegates to their respective national conventions. These delegates are the people who will spend several days in Charlotte, NC (starting September 3, 2012 for the Democrats) or Tampa, FL (starting August 27, 2012 for the Republicans) choosing their party’s standard-bearers, cheering and applauding televised speeches, politicking and partying in one of the grandest of political traditions. When voters cast their votes in the Primary, they are actually choosing Delegates who are supportive or ‘pledged’ to the candidate for whom they vote.

And while the attention has been on the Republican Party, the Democrats also will have a convention, presumably to nominate President Barack Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden for a second term. And that means that in each state, Democratic partisans must also cast votes, caucus, or otherwise choose their Convention delegates.

Except in New Hampshire, it appears that the Democratic Party may have forfeited their right to send delegates pledged to President Obama.

New Hampshire State law reads as follows:

RSA 655:50 Selection of Delegates: Each presidential candidate who has filed pursuant to RSA 655:47 shall file with the secretary of state no later than the third Friday following the last day of the filing period before the presidential primary the names and addresses in alphabetical order of the delegates and their alternates, one alternate per delegate, who shall represent him as his delegation to the national convention.

That would have been November 18, 2011 for this election cycle. Former Republican candidate Gary Johnson flew to New Hampshire in a panic on that day because his campaign had forgotten to file their delegate slate. But apparently the Gary Johnson campaign was not the only campaign to forget to file.

A check of the NH Secretary of State shows that Barack Obama’s campaign also forgot to file.

I expect this will not make much of a difference at Convention time. After the primary, NH Secretary of State Bill Gardner will announce that Barack Obama won the Democratic Primary (he only has token, frivolous opposition). The Credentials Committee of the National Democratic Party will find some way to seat delegates from New Hampshire anyway.

And the Republicans will make some political hay about the Democrats cavalier approach and sloppy attention paid towards New Hampshire – the only “swing state” in the American northeast.

Not really a bright move for the Democrats….


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Dixville Notch, Hart's Location Results are in....

Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, two tiny hamlets nestled high in the White Mountains, have started - and completed - their Primary Votes.

The Dixville Notch GOP Results are:

Jon Huntsman - 2 votes
Mitt Romney - 2 votes
Ron Paul - 1 vote
Newt Gingrich - 1 vote
Rick Perry - 0
Rick Santorum - 0

The Hart's Location GOP Results are:

Mitt Romney - 5 votes
Ron Paul - 4 votes
Jon Huntsman - 2 votes
Rick Perry - 1 vote
Newt Gingrich - 1 vote.
Rick Santorum - 0

So, taken together, that's Romney - 7; Paul - 5; Huntsman - 4; Gingrich and Perry, 1 each; and Santorum a big Zero.

Shades of things to come?


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Perry & Romney Evade Issues, Reveal Constitutional Ignorance

Before giving the my first test each semester, I have a humorous – but very serious – discussion with my students about how to think critically and attack essay questions.

“If I ask you, 'which is more expensive, per ounce – the lemon or the orange?', the following are not appropriate answers:

“I think oranges are too expensive”
“I really, really like oranges!”
“I actually prefer limes in my drinks.”
“Do oranges grow anywhere except Florida?”

Students often laugh at this, but it is a very common college freshman approach on an essay test to write ‘something’ about the subject, even if it has absolutely nothing to do with answering the specific question that was asked. Sometimes it is because the student is evading the question, because they don't know the answer; other times, it is a serious inability to engage in critical thinking.

It is, apparently, not an error limited to college freshman: it appears to be standard operating procedure among Republican Presidential candidates…an error (or tactic) that is exacerbated by their frightening ignorance of basic constitutional law.

At a campaign stop last week, in Iowa, Rick Perry was asked to reconcile his support for limited government with a state anti-sodomy law that was on the books while he was Governor. The questioner mentioned Lawrence v. Texas, a 2003 case in which the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 to strike down the law, in effect legalizing private consensual sexual activity of any flavor. Perry was governor at the time of the court decision.

Perry rambled the following answer:

“I don’t dislike government, I just want government to work” [not an answer]. “We have a federal government that is out of control from the standpoint of spending [not an answer]. And, you know, I wish I could tell you I know every Supreme Court case. I don’t. I’m not even going to try to go through every Supreme Court case. I’m not a lawyer.[ignorance of basic constitutional law decided while he was Governor of the state which was the subject of the decision]. But here’s what I do know. I know they’re spending too much money in Washington, D.C., and $15 trillion worth of debt is on that young man right there [not an answer]. We can sit here and play I-gotcha questions on ‘What about this Supreme Court case?’ [you should know this, Rick] or whatever, but you know and I know that the problem in this country is spending in Washington, D.C. It’s not some Supreme Court case.[Fail]

Later, when asked by reporters if he knew what the Lawrence v. Texas case was, Perry answered, “I don’t. I think I explained … that pretty good there, that I didn’t understand it. I’m not taking the bar exam.”

That was at least a direct, honest answer to the question. It also revealed startling ignorance.

Last night at St. Anselm’s College in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney pulled the same “I prefer limes in my drinks” non-answer.

The exchange began when ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos asked whether Romney believed that the US Constitution contains a Right to Privacy. The question was clearly seeking his opinion on the 1965 case, Griswold vs. Connecticut, in which the Supreme Court invalidated a Connecticut statute that prohibited birth control, even between married adults. This decision established a right to privacy (especially in family matters) in the Bill of Rights, and has been cited for almost 50 years by the Court in subsequent decisions ranging from reproductive rights to home education rights. Here is the exchange:

Romney: “George, this is an unusual topic that you’re raising [non-answer; buying time]. States have the right to ban contraception? [No, they don’t, due to Griswold vs. Connecticut]. I can’t imagine that states would want to ban contraception. If I were a governor or a legislator in a state, I would totally oppose any effort to ban contraception [non-answer]. So you’re asking -- given the fact that there’s no state that wants to do so -- you are asking could it constitutionally be done? We could ask our constitutionalist here” [pointing at Ron Paul, and buying more time].

Stephanopoulos: “I am asking you, do you believe states have that right or not?”

Romney : “George, I don’t know whether the state has the right to ban contraception. [Ignorance]. No state wants to. The idea of you putting forward things that states might want to do that no state wants to do is kind of a silly thing, I think [continued Non-answer. Attack the questioner rather than answer the question].

Stephanopoulos : “You went to Harvard Law School, you know very well …”

Romney: “Has the Supreme Court decided that the states do not have the right to ban contraception? [startling ignorance]”

Stephanopoulos: “Yes, they have. 1965. Griswold vs Connecticut.”

Romney then went on to a rambling non-answer about how Americans have the right to amend the Constitution, and that he favors amending it to ban same-sex marriage [an obvious, “ I-prefer-limes-in-my-drink response]. “But I know of no reason to talk about contraceptions…Contraception, it’s working just fine, just leave it alone" [non-answer].

Stephanopoulos: “Do you believe the Supreme Court should overturn it or not?”

Romney: “Do I believe the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v Wade?” “Yes, I do.” [Not even limes any more...he jumps to Kumquats now…]

Kudos to Ron Paul at this point: Stephanopoulos posed the question to Paul, who succinctly answered that the 4th Amendment of Constitution's Bill of Rights includes a right to privacy in the home, and the Commerce Clause, regulating commerce among the states, overrides a states effort to prohibit goods, including contraception.

It really doesn’t matter to me how Perry reconciles his small-government philosophy with his state’s former anti-sodomy statute. Nor does Romney’s stance on Griswold vs. Connecticut matter to me. There is no conceivable way I would vote for either of them. But their failure to grasp basic constitutional law, and their inability – or refusal – to offer direct answers to the questions asked calls into question their fitness to be the Chief Executive branch official of the United States Government.


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Santorum’s Hypocrisy – and Ignorance – on Health Insurance

Being the week before the New Hampshire Primary, it is hard to go grab a loaf of bread in this state without running into some campaign entourage. Rick Santorum, after being booed off the stage for his anti-Marriage Equality screed yesterday, and having missed a traditional “must stop” at Lindy’s Diner this morning, finally showed at the Community Room of the Keene Public Library to press the flesh. In the most interesting exchange of the morning, Santorum tried to defend the practice of charging higher health insurance premiums to people with pre-existing conditions, and criticized the clause in the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) that prohibits insurers from denying coverage to those with pre-existing conditions.

In explaining this position to one member of the audience, he stated that "Americans need to be educated” about health care costs. This condescension was met with expertise greater than his: he was speaking with a woman who had been a nurse for over 30 years, and whose son was a childhood cancer survivor. She asked Santorum why her son should have to pay higher health premiums, or even go without insurance for the rest of his life.

Santorum’s answer: “Insurance works when people who are higher risk end up having to pay more, as they should.”

Not only does Santorum lack basic compassion, his answer shows that he fundamentally misunderstands the nature of most illnesses, and, worse, is a hypocrite to boot.

If we take him at his word, then those who statistically have a higher risk of incurring health care costs should pay higher premiums. If he really believes that, then he should look at his own family size.

Rick Santorum and his wife had seven children (one died soon after birth.) As any doctor’s office or hospital can verify, the more children one has, statistically, the higher the health costs associated with those children. This blogger has 6 children, and we used to joke that the local hospital ought to have a room reserved just for our family.

But most major Health Insurance Plans do not charge “per child.” Insurers generally provide plans for singles, married couples, single parent/child plans, and family plans. The Family Plans are without regard to the size of the family or number of children. Rick Santorum's Congressional Family Plan does not charge for additional chidlren.

So does Rick Santorum support increasing health premiums for families with large numbers of children? Doubtful: in Iowa, he proposed tripling the income tax deduction for each dependent child (from $3,500 to $10,500), which would virtually make the largest families exempt from income tax at the expense of single people and smaller families. This massive distortion of the tax code would accomplish the very thing he opposes when it comes to health care: subsidizing those who receive the most services with dollars paid by those who receive the least services. The hypocrisy is palpable.

It also shows that Santorum’s understanding of Insurance Pools is crude at best, and simply parroting Corporate Insurance Lobbyists at worst.

Insurance pools are based on the notion that everyone’s risk is shared. The first known successful Insurance pools existed as far back as 1235 with the birth of the "Hanseatic League," an alliance of shipowner-merchants along the Baltic Sea. Because this was the height of the era when Vikings ruled and pillaged the seas, there was always a good chance that a merchant's ship – and along with it, the merchant's life investment – would be captured by marauding Danes. Members of League chose to each take an ownership stake in all the other members’ ships to prevent against the possibility of a total loss. Shipowners forced to sail closer to Denmark were not thrown out of the pool in favor of those who plied waters further away; each shared equally in the losses – and surpluses – recorded by the entire group of merchants. It was a system that lasted for 300 years.

An insurance pool that favors the low-risk members, and penalizes the higher-risk members (as Santorum defends), is not an insurance pool at all, but a profit-making engine that distorts and misrepresents its purpose.

Fortunately for those with large families, most Americans really do understand this concept, and Mr. Santorum has benefitted from it.

Perhaps it is Mr. Santorum, not the American people, who need to be educated about health care costs.

Why This Progressive will vote for Ron Paul in the NH Primary

Here in New Hampshire, independents (or, more precisely, the “Undeclared”) are allowed to vote in any party’s primary. And in spite of having been a candidate for the statehouse as a Democrat just two years ago, I will be casting my vote for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary this Tuesday.

Let me say from the outset that I disagree with Ron Paul on many issues – significant policy issues. I favor universal access to health care for all; I want to see Glass-Steagall reenacted at the federal level, and increased regulation and oversight of the financial industry; I would like to see profit made from stock gambling - "capital gains" – taxed at the same rate that honest labor is. I believe the climatologists who are pleading with us to change our environmental habits. I believe unions need to be stronger, not weaker; and, as a gay man with an interracial family, I am a strong supporter of federal civil rights laws and the recognition, nationally, of marriage equality. I have no doubt that I would be frustrated on all of these issues by a Ron Paul Presidency.

Nonetheless, as a liberal, I see him as the clear choice for my vote in the Primary.

First, on all the issues I mentioned above, I believe Dr. Paul is wrong – but so is every other Republican running, not just Dr. Paul. Rick Santorum would invalidate same-sex marriages and supports state prohibition of birth control; Mitt Romney’s most significant financial support comes from the financial industry, and openly supported the disgusting level of retained corporate profits at a stop in Manchester yesterday; Newt Gingrich would break the back of labor on the altar of corporatism. The Republican field, to me, is a horrifying mix of the brutal and the uncaring.

But where Ron Paul differs from the other candidates, he differs in critical and important ways. Those differences make me shout, “Yes!,” and deserve my support.

Alone among the Republican candidates, Dr. Paul opposed the Patriot Act – the single largest erosion of American’s civil liberties in history - and its extensions. Alone among the GOP, he also opposed the recently passed NDAA, permitting the indefinite detention of Americans without charge or trial who are ‘suspected’ of aiding terrorists. Alone among the Republicans, he sees that the so-called “War on Drugs” has resulted in creating a permanent black underclass, as one in six adult black males now has a felony criminal record for non-violent offenses (Compare that to the Fed-backed banksters who wiped out a global economy and walk free). And alone among the Republicans, he has consistently voted and argued against the building of a global American Empire. Trillions of dollars and millions of lives have been affected by American militarism abroad, in endless wars and exercises that enrich military hardware industries and maim and kill our young soldiers and civilians worldwide. As I write, we are preparing for military exercise with Israel, based largely on politician’s efforts to pander to the “Second Coming” theocrats in the GOP.

And where Dr. Paul contrasts with the Republicans, he also provides a sharp contrast to President Obama and the Democratic establishment.

Obama has been no friend of progressives, but has governed as “GOP Light.” In each of my criticisms above, the Democrats have been complicit with the GOP. Obama signed the NDAA and has suppported SOPA; Obama’s Justice Department has argued for Executive immunity from lawsuits; Obama’s Department of Homeland Security has aided and abetted brutal attacks by police forces on OWS protesters; Obama’s FDA has raided raw milk producers, and Obama’s DEA has raided Medical Marijuana facilities in California. Obama signed sanctions meant to cripple Iran and draw us closer into military conflict.

It is no surprise to me that in the Iowa Caucuses, exit polls proved that Ron Paul won the vote of moderates, of liberals, and of independents. The American people are tired of corporate favoritism, fraudulent home foreclosures, endless wars, and the whole-scale destruction of civil liberties – all at the hands of both the Republican and Democratic establishments who, in spite of their differences, have pursued a common agenda.

Ron Paul is the one candidate – symbolic though his candidacy may be – who represents a whole scale “NO” to business as usual. And for this progressive, that is a message worth sending to both parties.


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Iowa Caucus Analysis: Romney Loses, Even as he Wins

The Republican Iowa caucuses are over, and 122,255 votes were recorded as follows:

Mitt Romney 30,015 (25%)
Rick Santorum 30,007 (25%)
Ron Paul 26,219 (21%)

Trailing behind these three were Newt Gingrich with 16,251 votes, Rick Perry with 12,604 votes, and Iowa native Michelle Bachmann with 6,073 votes.

In dividing their votes largely between Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul, caucus goers starkly represented the three philosophical ‘factions’ comprising the GOP, as well as age and income differences. Our conclusions from the votes and the exit polls:

Ron Paul won 50% of those in the 17-24 year old category, 45% of those in the 25-29 year old bracket, and 34% of 30-39 year olds. The younger the voter, the stronger the support for the messages of libertarianism and/or non-interventionism. Paul did well in all college towns.

He also won a majority of voters making under $30,000 annually by more than a 2:1 margin over all the other candidates, and won voters making less than $50,000 by a slim (2%) margin over Rick Santorum. He increased his win from only one county in 2008, to 18 in 2012, with his largest margin in Jefferson County (49%) – home of the Maharishi School of Management and center of Iowa’s peace-oriented Transcendental Meditation community.

Perhaps most importantly, Ron Paul won caucus-goers who were self-described independents, moderates, liberals, and first-time caucus-goers. Every national campaign knows that the battle for the Presidency is won by attracting the great ‘moderate middle,’ something neither Romney nor Santorum were able to do in Iowa.

Rick Santorum’s popularity exploded in the two weeks leading up to the caucus, and appeared to galvanize Iowa’s strong Evangelical Christian vote, winning many of the counties won by Mike Huckabee in 2008. He took the majority of those in the 40-64 year old age bracket, who often represent a more socially conservative, ‘family values’ voting bloc that has been ascendant in the GOP since the 1980s.

Santorum won over 61% of the vote in Lyon County, and won neighboring Sioux & O’Brien counties with more than 40%. These counties, in Iowa’s northwest corner, are some of the most conservative counties in Iowa, and are home to large, ‘Dominionist’ Reformed Churches that teach that government and laws should be structured on Biblical principles.

The biggest disappontment of the night was reserved for supporters of Mitt Romney – even though he won, statewide, by 8 votes.

Representing the old establishment blue-blood wing of the party, Romney won only one age group – seniors over age 65.

Four years ago, in the 2008 caucuses, Romney won 29,949 votes (25.2%) and took 24 counties. Last night, he won with 30,015 votes – also representing 25% of the vote cast. In other words, with four years and a supposed $10 million dollars of advertising under his belt, Romney was unable to expand his base even a tiny bit, increasing his vote by a mere 66 voters.

On the Iowan map (see bottom of post), it appears that the fact that he matched his performance four years ago was due largely to increased organization in a few key locations:

In the eastern part of the state, (which Romney won solidly in 2008 ) Romney lost 7 counties he won in 2008 to Ron Paul, and 1 to Rick Santorum, without picking up any new ones.

On the western border (the Missouri River counties), where Romney also did well in 2008, he lost 4 of the 7 he had won in 2008 to Rick Santorum, picking up only one new county.

It was in the middle of the state – particularly the growing Des Moines – West Des Moines area, where the GOP establishment organized for Romney - that Romney was to pick up 5 counties over 2008, while still losing one to Rick Santorum.

Make no mistake: Romney’s base is aging and shrinking. In spite of 4 years of campaigning, organizing, and spending, he was unable to expand his showing beyond his 2008 performance.

Perhaps Democratic operative James Carville said it best when describing voters attitudes towards Romney:

“It’s like trying to give a dog a pill. They keep spitting it out.”

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