The political and social commentaries of a man who embraces and loves life. Politics, Economics, Civil Liberties, Freedom, Nautical events, Sports, Culture, and International affairs thrown in. I am probably best described as a "fiercely independent contrarian environmentally conscious libertarian." Just when you think you have me pigeon-holed, I'll surprise you....
Showing posts with label Longshoremen's Union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Longshoremen's Union. Show all posts
Historically, followers of presidential campaigns have looked for an “October
Surprise” – a news event with the potential to change the course of the
election. Over the past few decades, the
“October Surprises” have included a false announcement of the Vietnam War
winding down by then-President Johnson during the 1968 Humphrey-Nixon-Wallace
contest; Henry Kissinger’s announcement that a Vietnam peace was “at hand” just
before the 1972 Nixon-McGovern election; the 1992 (Bush-Clinton) breaking of
the Iran-Contra affair; and the release of George W. Bush’s drunken driving
arrest just before the 2000 Bush-Gore election.
But sometimes, the ‘surprise’ comes from elsewhere…such as when Iran
announced that they would not release the American Embassy hostages just before
the 1980 Carter-Reagan election. And
that could well be the case this year.
Yes, Mitt Romney might release his Tax Returns (or they may be released to
media sources by hackers claiming to have obtained them).
Or perhaps Benjamin Netanyahu will decide to launch a surgical strike
against Iran’s nuclear complex, forcing President Obama into the position of
taking a hawk-like military stance (which will disappoint progressives, but not
be good enough for Neo-con Republicans).
Or maybe it will come in the form of a looming longshoremen’s strike that
has somehow evaded news reports, but which could shut down 14 ports and 95% of
all shipping traffic on the east coast.
On September 30, the employment contract between the U.S Maritime Alliance
(representing container carriers and port operators) and the International Longshoremen’s Association expires. Talks for a new contract broke down on Aug.
22 over wages and benefits, with no clear path to agreement in view. The union
had requested a "last best offer” from Management, and the Alliance Management
refused. The union said last week that it
was now “making preparations” for a possible strike on Oct. 1.
At the urging of the Retail Industry Leaders Association and the National
Retail Federation, President Obama has ordered mediators to reopen talks
between the groups. The breakdown in
talks comes in the midst of a concerted effort by Philadelphia area port
operators, in an alliance with Del Monte Brands, to transfer dock operations away
from ILA workers and towards lower-paid laborers.
“Many companies are making contingency plans, but clearly even the best
plans will be problematic in the event of a full- scale shutdown at East and
Gulf Coast ports,” said Peter Gatti, executive vice president of the National
Industrial Transportation League this week. “Even the potential shift of that freight will
put extraordinary demands on all modes of transportation, particularly for
rail.”
In 2002, U.S. West Coast ports closed for 10 days after the Pacific Maritime
Association locked out members of the International Longshore and Warehouse
union, who it said were intentionally slowing down work. President George W. Bush ordered an end to
the shutdown under the Taft-Hartley Act, but the short lock-out cost the U.S.
economy more than $1 billion a day.
The resolution – or not – of this situation could well be the “October
surprise” for 2012. If the President is
able to secure a negotiated settlement, it will earn him political capital.
But if an agreement is not reached, it puts the President in a no-win
situation: as long as the strike continues, the economy will be further
depressed, and Republicans will seize on the opportunity to criticize the
President and unions. If the President
steps in and orders the dockworkers back to work, he will be seen as betraying
blue collar workers, unionists, and progressives.
I fully expect Obama to win re-election, based on today’s numbers and
sentiments.
But if this is the “October Surprise,” all bets could be off - especially in the three critical coastal swing states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida...and heavily unionized states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
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