Monday, July 30, 2012

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map, August 1 Update

[This posted updated as of Sept 1 HERE. ]

As we enter the Nominating Convention season, I still see Obama defeating Romney by an electoral vote of 310 to 228.  The two places where I am contradicting most other "experts" are New Hampshire (where I see an arrogant freshman Republican domination of the state house pulling out all the stops to frustrate student, minority, and 'liberal' voting groups), and Arizona, where I see a backlash among minorities and independents against the antics of their state GOP.

 As for a state-by-state roundup of the 'swing states,' here is my analysis:

 ARIZONA: Once a red state, we see a backlash happening on several fronts: the zany antics of Sheriff Joe, efforts to define 'personhood' at ovulation, harping on the 'birther' issue, and harsh rhetoric about immigration should cause a perfect stew of resentment against Republicans by Hispanics, women, young people, and independents.  The Supreme Court's elimination of three clauses of Gov. Jan Brewer's pet anti-immigrant legislation will further energize progressives and immigrant-rights groups to win in Arizona. Americans describing themselves as Hispanic, Native American, Black, Asian, and Racially mixed have all increased by double-digit percentages in the last 10 years, a good sign for an interracial President.  We contradict the pollsters, and see this state swinging Blue now.

IOWA: Polls are mixed, and too close to call. Iowa is tough to gauge, and will be close: we now give the edge to the Democrats, as Republican infighting and "bad blood" between the Paul libertarians, Santorum Religious Zealots, and the Romney Establishment over stealing the Iowa caucuses have prevented the GOP from organizing a realistic state-wide campaign so far.  Blue.

FLORIDA: This should be Blue, but a massive effort by Republicans in the state to purge voting rolls of Democratic-leaning groups is almost certain to throw the electoral votes of Florida into court - again.  We give it to the GOP - again.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Though it went for Obama (narrowly) last time, this is a tight state.  An active Libertarian Party bid in NH that emphasizes peace and an end to the war on drugs will hurt Obama as much as Romney; and an increasingly organized Green Party effort will hurt Obama far more than Romney.  Given the already tight race in this state, and the brashness of a young, ascendant state GOP leadership in suppressing liberal votes, we now give it to Romney - though we doubt he will win it with a majority of votes.

NORTH CAROLINA: Democratic convention in Charlotte notwithstanding, there is some Triumphalism among the religious right over the recent vote to ban Marriage Equality in the NC Constitution.  This momentum may just carry them through the Fall. Red.

VIRGINIA: Normally a safe GOP state, especially on a state-wide basis, Virginia sided with Obama in the last election. Increasing numbers of middle-class blacks, and an in-migration of young liberals in the tidewater and Potomac regions suggest that Virginia will once again go Democratic.  Three of four recent polls suggest Obama is pulling ahead...and the only poll that disagrees is the chronically pro-Republican Rasmussen poll.  Count Virginia Blue.

As for the other "swing" states: We still give New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Ohio to Obama by comfortable margins (Ohio is not even close), and Indiana (won by Obama in 2008) to Romney. We do not believe that Obama is in danger of losing Wisconsin, in spite of an electorate tired of everybody and everything. 

(Map Courtesy of )

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